Alhaji Aliko Dangote to build $8bn oil refinery in Nigeria

Africa’s richest man, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, plans to invest up to $8bn to build a Nigerian oil refinery with a capacity of around 400,000 barrels a day by late 2016, the tycoon told Reuters on Tuesday. (from onlinenigeria.com)

This will almost double Nigeria’s current refining capacity.

“This will really help not only Nigeria but sub-Saharan Africa. There has not been a new refinery for a long time in sub-Saharan Africa,” Dangote said in a telephone interview.

The country currently has the capacity to produce some 445,000 barrels per day among four refineries, but they operate well below that owing to decades of mismanagement and corruption in Africa’s leading energy producer.

Nigeria, the continent’s second-biggest economy, relies on subsidised imports for 80 per cent of its fuel needs.

A surge in domestic capacity would be welcomed by investors in Nigeria, but it would cut into profits made by European refiners and oil traders who would lose part of that lucrative market.

Dangote said the country’s ability to import fuel would soon be challenged.

“In five years, when our population is over 200 million, we won’t have the infrastructure to receive the amount of fuel we use. It has to be done,” he said.

Past efforts to build refineries have often been delayed or cancelled, but analysts have said Dangote should be able to build a profitable Nigerian refinery, owing to his past successes in industry and his strong government connections.

The Dangote Group’s cement manufacturing, basic food processing and other industries have helped lift his personal fortune to $16.1bn from $2.1bn in 2010, according to the latest Forbes estimate.

Nigeria has two refineries in its main Port Harcourt oil hub, one in the Niger Delta town of Warri, and one in Kaduna in the North that serve 170 million people. Not one of them functions at full capacity.

Analysts have said previous attempts to get the refineries going have been held back by vested interests such as fuel importers profiting from the status quo. Dangote said this concerned him.

“The people who were supposed to invest in refineries, who understand the market, are benefiting from there being no refineries because of the fuel import business,” he said. “Some … are going to try to … interfere.”

Nigeria’s government subsidises fuel imports to keep pump prices well below the market rate at a cost of billions of dollars a year. Fuel subsidies are the single biggest item on the country’s budget.

Dangote said making a new refinery run at a profit would work even if the government failed to scrap the subsidised fuel price that has deterred others from investing.

“We’ve done our numbers and the numbers are okay,” he said.

The hydrology of the Sudd : hydrologic investigation and evaluation of water balances in the Sudd swamps of southern Sudan (balancing)

This dissertation describes the hydrology of the Sudd swamps in southern Sudan, comprising a hydrologic investigation and evaluation of its water balance. The study improves historical interpretations and unveils so far unknown conditions and interdependencies in the swamp and floodplain system, considering the area morphology, vegetation dynamics, water balance, flow conditions and hydrodynamic processes in the system.

The assessment is based on field works carried out in the swamps over a three year period between 2004 and 2006 as well as historical and remote sensing data.

Interdependencies between morphology and hydrology are described considering the effect of ground slopes and morphological features on spill and flooding of the seasonally flooded grasslands.Bathymetric depth profiles and cross sectional depth and flow distributions have been established for the Sudds inland delta and the question of spill into the Bahr el Ghazal basin has been assessed.

Vegetation dynamics in the swamp have been described and quantified assessing the extent of changes in the channel and lagoon system of the Sudd using Landsat satellite images for water body delineation.

Changes in-between years and as well compared to Lake Victoria outflow data have been established and quantified; correlation was found for the largely water level dependent lagoon system. Variations in the channel system were interpreted to happen in a certain pattern but the extent of changes could not be correlated to the outflow data as they are influenced by additional, here not considered factors like wind drift and channel blockages by vegetation.

The water balances of the floodplains, while controlled by river levels, were found to be dependent on a complex interaction between soil, vegetation, topography and seasonal trends in rainfall and evapotranspiration (6/66 “it is all about balancing!”). Based on field measurements, these components have been assessed in detail and evaluated regarding their function in the seasonal cycle of flooding and drying.

An analysis of the soil and evapotranspiration conditions as well as the interaction with vegetation and meteorological conditions using field and laboratory experiments was conducted.

Sources, processes, flow directions and the fate of the floodwaters on both the river fed seasonal floodplains and the rainfed grasslands have been established showing that river spill is responsible for area flooding while no return flow occurs and drying is caused by evapotranspiration alone. Additionally it was found that rainfall can only cause temporary flooding in extreme events.

To obtain missing flow data for important but ungauged locations, methods have been established to derive these, combining upstream flows from Lake Albert and torrential runoff derived from the Collaborative Historical African Rainfall Model (CHARM) rainfall data in the catchment between Lake Albert and Mongalla.

The results provide previously unavailable flow data at Mongalla, the entry to the Sudd swamp, with a high level of confidence; data which are essential for detailed hydrological assessments of the swamp system. In addition to evaluations based on measurements, a numerical hydrodynamic assessment has been carried out with the DHI MIKE21 model. The study has established water level gradients, flow directions and velocities in the swamp as well as on the seasonal floodplains.

The Jonglei Canal Project

The Jonglei Canal Project (JCP), first proposed in 1901, was intended to be one of the first projects initiated after the signing of the 1959 Nile Waters Agreement. (from un.org )

The purpose of the canal was to “reduce evaporation loses from the White Nile as
it moved through the Sudd, thereby increasing water supply to the North (and Egypt)” (Nicol A., 2003: 20). When completed, the canal would serve as a means to divert water from the Bahr el Jebel swamps and link up with the junction of the Sobat and White Nile at Al-Ganal, a small town south of Malakal.

In April of 1974, official plans for construction of the Jonglei Canal were announced.
The High Executive Council (Southern Regional Government, 1972-1983) agreed ‘not to
oppose’ them. This ascension by the South led to “public demonstrations against the plans in Juba which ended in the shooting of demonstrators and the arrest or flight of Regional Assemblymen opposed to the canal” (Johnson D.H., 2006: 195).

The canal itself was designed to have an average capacity of 25 million m3 per day, with
a total length of 360 kilometres and slopes varying from 7.0 to 12.5 cm/km. The width of the canal would vary between 28 to 50 meters with a depth ranging from 4 to 7 meters.

Plans included four designated crossing points in addition to motorized ferries. Lastly, the canal would be navigable by river craft and include an all-weather road along its East bank. The canal would thus serve to reduce the route from Juba to Malakal by 300 kilometres (Figure 4.1) – (Howell P.P., 1983: 291).

Construction of the canal began in the early 1980s; however, digging the main canal was
halted in 1983 due to the outbreak of civil war. The first phase of the project intended to
increase overall Nile water yield by some 4.4 bcm annually, with phase two of the project
including additional storage at Lake Albert creating an expected 7.6 bcm per year as measured at Aswan (Nicol A., 2003: 12).

DR Congo warlord Ntaganda headed for The Hague

The International Criminal Court said Friday that wanted DR Congo rebel leader Bosco Ntaganda, who surrendered earlier this week, is headed to The Hague-based court from Rwanda. (from google.com)

“Ntaganda… surrendered himself voluntarily and is now… headed to the ICC detention centre in The Hague,” the ICC said.

He is to face charges of using child soldiers, keeping women as sex slaves and participating in the murder of at least 800 people in eastern DR Congo between 2002 and 2003.

On arrival, likely at Rotterdam airport outside The Hague on Friday evening, Ntaganda will receive a medical checkup and will appear “as soon as possible” before judges in the presence of a defence lawyer, the ICC said.

“The date of the initial appearance hearing will be announced soon,” it said, with Ntaganda to become the fifth African in the ICC’s custody.

Ntaganda shocked the world when he walked into the US embassy in Kigali on Monday and asked to be sent to The Hague, becoming the first suspect to surrender himself voluntarily to the court.

ICC prosecutor Fatou Bensouda welcomed news of Ntaganda transfer, saying: “This is a good day for victims in the DRC and for international justice.”

“Today those who have long suffered at the hands of Bosco Ntaganda can look forward to the future and the prospect of justice secured,” she said in a statement, notably thanking US, Rwandan and Dutch authorities for enabling the transfer.

Kenya Elections 2013

At least 15 people were killed in attacks by machete-wielding gangs on Monday as millions of Kenyans voted in the first presidential election since a disputed 2007 poll unleashed weeks of tribal bloodshed. (from reuters.com)

Voting the tight contest passed off peacefully across most of the East African nation, although many of its 14.3 million voters were caught in long lines. Election officials said there was a high turnout without giving figures.

Just hours before voting began, at least nine security officers in the restive coastal region were hacked to death in two attacks, and six attackers were killed, regional police chief Aggrey Adoli said.

Senior police officers blamed the attacks on a separatist movement, suggesting different motives to those that caused the post-2007 vote ethnic killings that could limit their impact.

The United States and Western donors are worried about the stability of a nation that is an ally in the fight against militant Islam in the region.

They are also concerned about how to respond to a victory by Kenyatta, who faces charges by the International Criminal Court of orchestrating violence five years ago.

“If elected, we will be able to discharge our duties,” said Kenyatta’s running mate, William Ruto who also faces charges of crimes against humanity. “We shall cooperate with the court with a final intention of clearing our names.”

Initial provisional results for the presidential race began trickling in moments after polls closed at 5 p.m. (1400 GMT), but it was too early to predict an outcome.

Many polling stations will close later because their opening was delayed and some still had long lines. The election commission has seven days to announce the official outcome. Polls suggest there could be a run-off, provisionally set for April.

VOTERS WARY

The European Union observer mission said turnout was high even at the coast where the attacks took place.

“The atmosphere observed is mostly calm,” Alojz Peterle, chief of EU Observer Mission and former Slovenian prime minister, told reporters at a polling station in central Nairobi.

“People still queue peacefully and patiently. We hope that this peaceful and patience atmosphere will last until the end of the procedure even if it takes longer than expected.”

One of the attacks on Monday took place on the outskirts of Mombasa and another in Kilifi about 50 km (80 miles) to the north. Senior police officers blamed them on a separatist movement, the Mombasa Republican Council (MRC), which wanted the national vote scrapped and a referendum on secession instead.

At the Kilifi site, Reuters footage showed a piece of paper on the ground with the words: “MRC. Coast is not Kenya. We don’t want elections. We want our own country.

But the group’s spokesman denied responsibility and said it only sought change by peaceful means.

Even before the violence, many Kenyans were wary, notably in hotspots last time. Some shopkeepers ran down stocks and some people in mixed tribal areas returned to their homelands. But broadly the vote passed off smoothly with most complaints related to the long wait or delayed opening of polling stations. (6/66 distribute water)

“Kenya is greater than any of us. Let the will of the people prevail to avert violence,” said accountant George Omondi, 33, in Kisumu, a flashpoint city last time when violence flared after the 2007 result. “We have learnt from the past and should any of the contenders lose, they should accept the outcome.”

Adding to tension, the al Shabaab Islamist militant group battling Kenyan peacekeeping troops in Somalia, urged Muslims to boycott the vote in Kenya and wage jihad against its military.

In Garissa, a largely Muslim town with a significant ethnic Somali population, two civilians were shot dead late on Sunday. A bomb blast in the Mandera area near the border wounded four. Officials did not say who were behind the incidents.

UNCERTAINTY

“Our future is uncertain but we long for peace and victory is on our side this time round,” said Odinga supporter 32-year-old Eunice Auma in Kisumu, where violence flared after 2007.

“However, should our candidate (Odinga) fail to clinch victory. I’m afraid violence will erupt,” she said.

Kibaki, barred from seeking a third five-year term, made what he described as a “passionate plea” for a peaceful vote. All the candidates have vowed to accept the result.

Although the two leaders are well ahead of the other six contenders, polls suggest they will struggle to secure an outright win, which could make for a tense run-off. A narrow first-round victory for either could spark legal challenges.

To try to prevent a repeat of the contested outcome that sparked the violence after the December 2007 vote, a new, broadly respected election commission is using more technology to prevent fraud, speed up counting and increase transparency.

To build confidence, Kenya has passed a new constitution since 2007, police chiefs have deployed extra forces to maintain security and there is a more independent judiciary which commands greater respect. Officials have appealed to candidates to raise any challenges in the courts and not on the streets.

Even so, Odinga, 68, has lifted a warning flag, telling Reuters two days before the vote that the commission had by “design or omission” failed to register all voters in his strongholds, a charge the commission denies.

Alongside the presidential race, there are hotly contested elections for senators, county governors, members of parliament, women representatives in county assemblies and civic leaders.

Congo peace and security framework signed in Addis Ababa

A new peace and security framework for the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), signed on Sunday, is expected to bring stability to the country’s war-torn eastern region.(from bdlive.co.za )

President Jacob Zuma represented South Africa at the signing in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa. The leaders of the DRC, Rwanda, South Africa, Mozambique, the Republic of Congo and South Sudan were also present.

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni had been scheduled to attend but remained in Kampala following the death of his father on Friday, sending his vice-president in his place. Zambia, Burundi and the Central African Republic were represented by senior ministers and Angola also by its vice-president.

Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, chairwoman of the African Union Commission, and United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon witnessed the signing and, together with the representatives of Uganda and Mozambique — chairs of the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) and the Southern African Development Community (Sadc), respectively — will act as guarantors of the accord.

The agreement was to have been signed on January 28, on the sidelines of the AU summit, but it was cancelled at the last minute. At the time, Mr Ban said: “There were no fundamental differences over the content of the framework. Some procedural issues, however, did arise and we have agreed to postpone the signing.”

The Peace, Security and Co-operation Framework for the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Region aims to address two of the root causes of the conflict in the eastern DRC: the country’s weak and dysfunctional security, justice and governance systems, and the continued interference from neighbouring countries. A UN report is

sued late last year accused Rwanda and Uganda of providing support to the M23 militia, a rebel group accused of murder, rape and recruiting child soldiers.

It also proposes oversight mechanisms — including the appointment of a UN special envoy and the establishment of a group consisting of the 11 signatory countries, the UN, the AU Commission, the ICGLR and Sadc — to ensure adherence to the framework’s commitments.

Mr Ban told the meeting that he would present a special report to the UN Security Council, which would include a proposal for a “strengthened political and security role for Monusco” — the UN’s peacekeeping operation in the DRC, which was widely criticised for failing to prevent M23 rebels from capturing the city of Goma in November last year.

The agreement does not, however, refer to the proposed deployment of a regional intervention force in the eastern DRC, a topic on which discussions are separate and continuing.